假设你正在考虑推出一项新服务. 你认为市场在增长, and as part of your research you find information that supports this belief. As a result, you launch the service, backed by a major marketing campaign, but the service fails. The market hasn’t expanded, so there are fewer customers than you expected. You can’t sell enough of your service to cover its costs, and you end up with a loss.
在这种情况下，你的决定受到确认偏误的影响. You interpreted market information in a way that confirmed your preconceptions—instead of seeing it objectively—and you made the wrong decision as a result.
Confirmation bias is one of many psychological biases to which we’re all susceptible when we make decisions. 现在有大量的人在思考这个现象, building on the work of the Nobel Prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman and his late collaborator Amos Tversky.
Psychological bias—also known as cognitive bias—is the tendency to make decisions or take actions that go against systematic logic. 例如, 你可能会下意识地选择性地使用数据, 或者你可能会感到来自强势同事的压力. 心理偏见与清晰、慎重的判断是相反的. 它可能会导致错失机会和糟糕的决策. Here are five common psychological biases that can lead us to make poor business decisions.
确认偏误
如前面的例子所示, confirmation bias happens when you subconsciously look for information that supports your existing beliefs. This can lead you to make biased decisions because you don’t factor in all relevant information.
To avoid confirmation bias, look for ways to challenge what you think you see. Seek out information from a range of sources, and consider situations from multiple perspectives. 另外, discuss your thoughts with others: Surround yourself with a diverse group of people, 不要害怕听取不同的意见.
锚定
This is the tendency to base your final judgment on information gained early in the decision-making process. 例如, 谈价格时, 最初的数字表明, 即使它看起来高得离谱, 通常会决定你最终付出的代价. 你可以把这看作是第一印象偏见. Once you form an initial picture of a situation, it’s hard to see other possibilities.
为了克服锚定影响你判断的风险, 反思你的决策历史, 想想你过去是否急于做出判断. Often it is a good idea to ask for more time if you feel pressured to make a quick decision. (如果有人咄咄逼人地催促你做决定, 这可能是他或她违背你最大利益的信号.)
It’s hard to spot psychological bias in ourselves because it often comes from subconscious thinking. 出于这个原因, 独自做重大决定可能是不明智的, 不要和别人讨论.
过度自信的偏见
This occurs when you place too much faith in your own knowledge and opinions. You may believe that your contribution to a decision is more valuable than it actually is. 你可以将这种偏见与锚定结合起来, 意思是你凭直觉行事, 因为你对自己的决策能力有不切实际的看法.
为了克服这种偏见, consider the sources of information you tend to rely on when you make decisions: Are they fact-based, 还是依靠直觉? And to what extent are you relying on your prior successes as a source of insight rather than factoring in failures? If you suspect that you might be depending on potentially unreliable information, 尽量收集更多客观的数据.
赌徒谬误
在赌徒谬误中，你期望过去的事件会影响未来. A classic example is a coin toss: If you get heads seven times consecutively, you might assume that there’s a higher chance that you’ll toss tails the eighth time; and the longer the run, 你的信念越坚定，下一次事情就会改变. 当然，几率总是一半一半.
在商业环境中，赌徒谬误可能是危险的. 想象一下，你是一个投资分析师，在一个高度波动的市场. 你之前的四笔投资都很不错, 你打算做一个新的, 更大的一个，因为你看到了成功的模式. 事实上, 结果非常不确定, and the number of successes that you’ve had previously has only a small bearing on the future.
To avoid the gambler’s fallacy, make sure that you look at trends from a number of angles. 深入挖掘数据，并尝试对未来的可能性形成一个现实的看法. 例如，如果你注意到行为模式或产品成功, 如果有几个项目意外失败，请在您的环境中寻找趋势, 比如消费者偏好的改变或更广泛的经济环境.
基本归因错误
This is the tendency to blame others when things go wrong instead of looking objectively at the situation. In particular, you may blame or judge someone based on a stereotype or a perceived personality flaw.
例如, 如果你出了车祸，而另一个司机有责任, you’re more likely to assume that he or she is a bad driver than you are to consider whether bad weather played a role. 然而, 如果你出了车祸，那是你的错, you’re more likely to blame the brakes or the wet road than your reaction time.
为了避免这个错误, 看清形势是很重要的, 以及参与其中的人, 内观.
Use empathy to understand why people behave in the ways they do and build emotional intelligence so that you can reflect accurately on your own behavior.
经出版商威利许可，节选自 管理者的思维工具 詹姆斯·曼克特洛和朱利安·伯金肖著. ©2018 by Wiley. 版权所有. 这本书在任何出售书籍和电子书的地方都可以买到.